Football Articles
We’re Number….1?!?!
Posted by NateHeupel on May 26th, 2010 under Football
According to Phil Steele that is. (Via Pat Forde’s twitter feed)
Let me be clear. Though I make half-assed attempts to be objective (fine…quarter-assed), I am quite obviously not. There’s a list of Barkers about as long as UT’s list of players awaiting DUI treatment or OU D-Lineman awaiting anger management counseling that could all verify this to be fact. I believe that every year OU has a realistic chance of going undefeated regardless of the gaping holes in the offensive line. I have a hard time seeing the fundamental flaws exposed in our program, such as those very accurately exposed by a recent CBS article talking about the recurring violations by the basketball team.
Phil Steele does the best preseason ratings and preview in the business bar none. There’s not even a close 2nd. If you’re not going to Fading Las Vegas and to Huckleberry and Trips Right for your info, then this is about as good as you’re going to get. Mr. Steele apparently thinks OU is going to be the #1 team in America.
Before I go off on why I don’t buy this, let me at least frame a couple of very important factors in Steele’s analysis.
Steele puts a great deal of weight on teams that suffered multiple close losses. His theory is that such luck doesn’t reoccur and that such teams are likely to catch breaks and win those games the next year. I’m not sure if anyone else lost more close games last year than OU. Of our five losses, only one was by more than 7 points. Mind you, we got smooth buttfucked in that one that was by more than 7 points. But Texas Tech caught us with every imaginable injury at Lubbock, and they were still pissed off over the stomping they took in Norman the year prior. They had no intention of just beating us. If I’m looking at what team might just have a chance to finally catch some breaks, I’d think a team that only lost one game by more than a TD would qualify. Look up ChrisApplewhite’s very insightful article about regression to the mean for a better exposition on the concept.
In addition, Steele also looks at injuries in the previous year. Frankly, I also can’t think of another team more decimated by injuries than OU. Between Bradford, Gresham, and the plethora of OL injuries (Christ, was Tonya Harding waiting outside the locker room?), if we suffer only half as many injuries as we did in 2009, we’ll be a 10 win team.
Finally, Steele also heavily weights returning interior linemen. Given that our only losses are Trent Williams and Gerald McCoy, and we get pretty much everyone else back, we rate pretty high here, too. Even then, Trent Williams, for all his talent, was not known as a leader or a positive influence on the OL. Frankly, he was so much more talented than anyone else that he didn’t have to work nearly as hard. I don’t believe it’s a coincidence that the reports on the effort from the OL are exponentially more positive this spring than last.
Now here’s why I have a hard time with this.
Gerald McCoy wasn’t just a superstar DT, he was a true leader on and off the field. From all accounts, Adrian Taylor will be back at 100% by kickoff of the Utah State game and JaMarcus McFarland may very well be ready to perform at an All Big 12 level this year, but neither makes up for losing GK. I think the loss of McCoy will change the dynamic of the front 7, and I’m not sure if Travis Lewis and Jeremy Beal are going to step up and fill that leadership role.
We lost all those close games for a reason, and it wasn’t just bad breaks. Our kicking game is an abortion, and that’s putting it delicately. If we make the three missed field goals against Nebraska (all of which were VERY makeable), we win that game. Miami and BYU? Same story. A solid FG kicker may very well have made us into a 10-2 team headed to Arlington instead of El Paso for our bowl game. Guess what? The kicking game still sucks like it’s trying to pay for rent and daycare.
Our interior line never at any point improved in the running game (due to injuries), nor have we shown signs of being able to be not injured. Ben Habern seems to be perpetually injured, and Brian Lepak hasn’t done much better. Stephen Good has battled injury incessantly. Don’t get me wrong. If these guys all get healthy and can stay healthy (at least for the most part), we really do have a chance to be great. That first “if” is kind of enormous.
Am I willing to see OU put in the top 15? Absolutely. This team has a ton of talent and experience on defense (except at CB), and an offense that’s finally seeming to get a core group set. Top 10? Sure. The weaknesses aren’t dramatic, and we’ve won Big 12 titles in worse situations. Top 5? Not yet. We don’t have a FG kicker to speak of, and our OL still hasn’t proven that there’s a coherent unit capable of thriving in a Big 12 season.
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Ibas water bottle said:
May 26th, 2010 at 10:13 pm
Sure I get we lose a bunch of offensive lineman but I still have trouble agreeing with the idea that OSU will finish 6th in the south like Steele says. Make all the game day jokes you want about Gundy but this staff hasn’t been God awful in recruiting. He won’t be calling the plays any more and Bill Young still gets to coach the defense.
That said I dunno why OU won’t finish top 15 this year. Good post.
Better Off Red — Blog — Phil Steele: Nebraska #5 (and OU #1!?) said:
May 26th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
[...] UPDATE — Our friends at Boomer and Sooner have put up a very good analysis of the Sooners’ #1 ranking. Check it out here. [...]
magnusbleuveigner said:
May 27th, 2010 at 6:24 am
Phil Steele is an idiot. Putting Texas at #11 is just as stupid as putting OU at #1.
Texas-If UT pulls off that drive against Bama where would we be? We’d be a resounding #1 going into next year. We didn’t, I get that, but we’re not worthy of the top 10? Ree dick a luss. And, don’t try and take up for him by saying UT lost a lot, because clearly that doesn’t bother him since…..
OU-Just lost the 1st, 3rd, and 4th overall draft picks to the NFL.
He also thinks Curtis Brown is a better player than Aaron Williams! Ree damn dick a luss.
http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_/id/12709/steele-releases-all-big-12all-american-teams
NateHeupel said:
May 27th, 2010 at 7:33 am
magnus,
It’s nice to see we can agree on something. A few points to nitpick.
Did OU really “lose” Sam Bradford for the purposes of predicting 2010? Not really. He was gone the wide majority of 2009 anyway. In 2009, we returned Trent Williams on the OL and that was pretty much it. In 2010, we return everyone else. When it comes to returning OL, 4 > 1, regardless of where that one got drafted. As I said, losing McCoy is going to be a lot bigger than people think.
Meanwhile, what did Texas lose? Not much. Just the most winning QB in the history of the university (and the NCAA, I think) and a 6th year senior who was the only reliable WR (and the only one of any use against Alabama) and pretty much the entire OL.
Basically, you’re OU circa 2009 but with a kicking game. Unrealistically good defense, wholly unknown quantity at QB (the same guy who led a comeback against ‘Bama also gave up 4 INTs), completely unproven OL, no running game of which to speak, and not a single WR who’s proven to be a factor consistently. UT’s got more than enough talent to fill those gaps, but history has proven that task to be easier said than done.
Oread Boom Kings — Blog — Kansas Football Ranked 31st said:
May 27th, 2010 at 9:25 am
[...] yesterday, Pat Forde leaked news that Phil Steele had the Oklahoma Sooners ranked [...]
dick said:
May 27th, 2010 at 11:06 pm
Nate,
I’d agree that UT was in a similar situation as OU in 2009 except we have Muschamp coaching the D and like you mentioned a potentially solid kicking game and we won’t have the inordinate amount of injuries injuries yall had. We also have an easier schedule in ’10 than yall had in ’09. With that considered, do you keep Texas out of the top 5?
Losing a top 4 draft pick LT said:
May 28th, 2010 at 3:25 am
Washington Redskin fans who are still trying to convince themselves of Trent’s competence will tell you that Trent Williams was drafted because of potential, faith, and a recommendation from Malcolm Kelly. He did not have a great year for us, but could absolutely kick the schit out of DEs at times. The other 2 senior OL whose absences are supposed to hurt the OL combined for almost an entire season of missed games.
A good comparison would be when the offensive line was bad in 2005, Davin Joseph was drafted 23rd overall in the 2006 draft (although I remember nothing about Davin’s work ethic), yet the 2006 OL was much better.
TaylorTRoom said:
May 28th, 2010 at 4:36 am
The thing that makes Phil Steele’s predictions so good is that he relies as much as possible on quantitative, not qualitative, variables. The exception is where he uses recruit rankings to gauge program talent, which is a solid approach (especially since he averags the ratings).
I will be curious to see why he has OU so high. Off the top of my head, his ratings are based upon returning depth, lost talent in draft, program talent, yards per points (offense and defense, based on the idea that teams that scored much more or much less than expected based on yards should bounce back), and prior close losses and wins. The last one is weakest, since there is no lever to make a team win a close one in 2010 just because they lost several close ones in 2009. There really shouldn’t be more than regression to the mean.
The final thing he does is “play out” a team’s actual schedule with his different factors. That’s why I’m usually interested in his power rankings in the back of the book, which are based on relative strengths of teams, not how he expects them to finish ranked. During the season, looking at one game, that’s the key gauge.
NateHeupel said:
May 28th, 2010 at 7:12 am
dick,
This year is as open as any year has been since the beginning of the BCS. I think you could legitimately rank UT anywhere from 4th to 10th depending on your criteria. Hell, I’m still trying to sort it out. Off the cuff, I’d have UT around 6th because I remember the last time UT’s offense had to rebuild the line in 2006. Granted, UT didn’t have the type of talent to work with that they do now, but McWhorter isn’t the kind of guy who just inspires confidence.
NorthDallasSooner said:
May 28th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
Steele’s method is purely objective, unlike any of us on the network, but I just don’t see this. Too many questions on the OL. We still don’t know that Landry Jones is any better than Nate Hybl. And there’s questions at corner. Throw in a brutal schedule and you have the makings for a couple losses.
Of course, with UT breaking in new horses, 2 losses could win the conference this year.
Pump Me Up said:
June 5th, 2010 at 11:17 pm
Tell Jamarkus to avoid the lesbians. Good article, Nate.
Barking Carnival | Blog | Phil Steele Hates Trent Richardson said:
June 28th, 2010 at 9:19 am
[...] season “methodically” didn’t quite cover it, as I stared mouth agape at the Oklahoma Sooners occupying the number one slot. Perhaps my agape mouth was an homage to the people of Oklahoma. I do not [...]