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Big 12: Who’s Got “The Mo” And How Can They Lose It
Posted by NateHeupel on January 22nd, 2010 under Football
This was a horribly gay title. I’ll admit that up front. I feel like I work for ESPN or something. However, because I have neither the motivation nor the energy to come up with something better, all seven of you who read this blog will live with it.
Back on point, the question is who’s got the momentum going into the next decade of Big 12 football. Not who was the best Big 12 team of the 2000’s (OU), but who looks to be the best team going forward. The funny thing about this sort of prognostication is that college football is strangely cyclical since the circumstances are largely under the control of each team.
For example, if we’re having this debate in January of 2000, would you have ever guessed that OU would win SIX Big 12 titles, a MNC, and play for the MNC three more times before the decade was over? At this point, they were a nice-looking 7-5 team coming off an Independence Bowl loss to Ole Miss. Would you have guessed that the Big 12 South would go on to dominate the way they have? Bill Snyder was still relevant at K-State, and Nebraska hadn’t gone full retard yet.
Would you have guessed that Massachusetts would elect a Republican? Things just got weird before all was said and done. I don’t care what your political stance is, certain people do certain things. UT fans exercise unreasonable hubris (Colt McCoy is invincible!), OU fans like myself exercise a complete lack of any contact with reality (The O-line is looking grrreat!), OSU fans just wallow in stupidity (We’re on the rise!), and so forth and so on. But I digress.
With no further ado, here’s who’s got momentum rolling into the 2010’s and what each respective team can do to fuck it up.
Texas: Will Muschamp took some assorted talent (Kindle, Houston) and some spare parts (paging Blake Gideon) and created one of the better defenses of 2009. What’s concerning is that he’s essentially stockpiling elite Texas defensive talent at this point, and he’s proven he knows how to develop it.
The problem is, was, and will continue to be Greg Davis and the offense. This group has never worried me once. Vince Young was a once-in-a-lifetime aberration, and the UT offense is not nearly as effective with a pure pocket passer. This is mainly because their running game is non-existent, and their RB talent is second rate. Fortunately for everyone else, UT didn’t remedy the RB issue with this year’s recruiting, and their QB is about as pure of a pocket passer as you could hope for. Plus, 9th year senior Jordan Shipley has finally moved on to the AARP. The most reliable WR on the roster for UT is recruit Darius White.
Oklahoma: Momentum? OU? Really? A bowl win goes a long way at OU. Usually about 4 years. However, attrition didn’t hit us as hard as I feared it would, and we’ve got a pretty strong group coming back. The offense is pretty much intact (for better or worse), and we’ve got a strong front 7. If Landry Jones continues to build on his Sun Bowl performance, there’s real hope to contend for the Big 12 title in 2010.
Of course, we lost the best defensive lineman and the best DB we had to the NFL, and you don’t replace guys like that easily. The interior of the D may be a bit of a liability with Gerald McCoy gone, since Gary Gibbs recruit Ryan Reynolds has moved on and will be replaced by either Tom Wort or Ronnell Lewis. See 2004 for how much fun that is when the middle of your front 7 is a liability. Special teams is where things get really dicey, particularly the kicking game. We don’t have a kicker than can reliably make a 45 yard FG. Hell, we could’ve beaten BYU, Miami, and Nebraska if we had a decent placekicker. Frankly, we’re going to keep losing close games until we can get a kicker who can make a clutch FG.
Nebraska: The Blackshirts are back. Just ask the new crew at Better Off Red. Pelini has brought a real focus and determination to improving the defense to championship levels. I’m interested to see how they do without the best DT to roam the Big 12 since Tommie Harris, but Pelini is recruiting well. What’s more is that they go into the offseason with the momentum built by a Deliverance-style beating on Arizona. Go ahead and pencil them in for the next 2 or 3 Big 12 title games as the North rep.
Of course, Pelini hasn’t brought this same focus to his offense. This feckless group of miscreants, rejects, and the occasional, talented Samoan sets a new Jeopardy record for futility in the passing game. This is their downfall for now. They simply can’t put enough points on the board to beat a South team at their best.
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NorthDallasSooner said:
January 22nd, 2010 at 4:41 pm
I follow you on most of it. As for the Oklahoma middle next year, Ronnell Lewis demonstrated in the Sun Bowl that he’s going to be just fine, and almost certainly the next great OU LB.
Franks is a real loss, and so is Jackson. That could and still can be a huge factor next year, especially with FSU and @Cincy in September, but Nelson and Hurst looked like they have a little something. If they can be coached up, as Jackson definitely was in his senior year, we’ll be ok.
The question mark for Oklahoma remains the offensive line. I almost shat myself when I saw on an ESPN future draft board that Stephen Good is a top five lineman when comes out. We don’t have many top five lineman that are in the top five on our team! If the offensive line emerges, we’ll be back to scoring 40, but not 60, a game.
Ditto on the kicker and it’s unbelievable. Another example of how recruiting services get it wrong a lot, Jimmy Stevens was the #1 kicker in the country in his recruiting class. But the problem doesn’t end with placements.
The Dallas Cowboys defense was helped immeasurably by the quality and depth of David Buehler’s kickoffs this year. Four touchbacks a game is 4-6 more first downs and 40-60 yards more that an opposing offense has to make to beat you and 4-6 more first downs and 40-60 yards less you need to beat them. We haven’t had a kicker that could consistently get kickoffs to the goal line since Trey DiCarlo. No, not even Hartley, consistently.
seven_fan said:
January 22nd, 2010 at 8:09 pm
I’ll go along with OU having the “Mo” during the last 10 years, and as long as Bob is the head coach, I don’t see that changing. He’s had a bunch of assistants move on to bigger and better things, and he’s done a good job of building the program back up, and bringing in top recruits – both of those things go hand-in-hand. Let’s hope that the walking wounded from 2009 heal up and can get better the way that we expected them to this past season. I think we’ll know a lot more during Spring. And while everyone loves Ronnell, everyone seems to forget about Tom Wort. He was supposedly the next great OU LB before his knee injury. Hope his rehab gets him back to that same level.
As for Nebraska, Pelini has done a fair job so far, and others in the North have done all they can to take a step backward. I’d guess that Crick will emerge for them as their next big DL, but one has to wonder if he’ll be as good without the focus on Suh.
Texas has some rebuilding to do on offense, even if they had a decent ground game.But Muschamp has done a great job with their D.
I think you have to look at what A&M and K-State are doing, as well as the turmoil at KU and Tech. A&M’s offense was supposedly pretty good, but they didn’t do much when facing a good defense like OU’s. But their defense was downright awful, though they are supposedly pulling in a good class for 2010. Bill Snyder did better than I thought he would in his first season back, but I really don’t know how long he’ll stick it out.
KU and Tech both lose coaches, and their replacements have promise, but it would seem that neither program will be quite the same in 2010 – my take is they’ve both lost “mo” from their 2007, 2008 and 2009 seasons.
Oh – and – Post more often guys. I found this site while perusing Barking Carnival. I always look forward to knowledgeable opinions laced with humor – and yes, I mean you guys.
Sailor Ripley said:
January 22nd, 2010 at 9:14 pm
Be nice to have some serviceable backs at UT and a scheme that made them look good rather than having to rely on elite talents producing ad hoc highlights.
Nice.
Looking forward to seeing Texas in Lincoln next season. They nearly had enough ‘offense’ to beat us in the title game.
seven_fan said:
January 22nd, 2010 at 10:49 pm
Sailor – you know as well as I do that the reason that Nebraska had the “offense” they did was because their D played lights out and created opportunities – same as they did against OU.
Mister Mike said:
January 22nd, 2010 at 11:06 pm
Nice read, Nate. I agree with your take on Pelini thus far. The…*ahem*…offense, was the cause of much constipation and assorted indigestion this fall here in Cornland.
However, fixing the defense was Pelini’s #1 priority when he got here and it was far, far above anything else on the list. It made sense, really. Since at the time, offense wasn’t the problem. Hell, Ganz threw for 15 TD’s (along with 7 INT’s) and almost 1500 yards in just his last THREE games in 2007.
With the news about Zac Lee’s torn tendons in his throwing elbow and how he played with it for nearly the entire year, our sorry excuse for an offense becomes more understandable. I think the offense we showed in the Holiday Bowl is going to be more of what you’re going to see. Pelini has said on several occasions that he wants to run the ball, he wants balance, he likes play action, and he likes to spread em out. Now if this means we’re going to more of an Alabama type power run/PA offense with spread principles included…I have no idea. If so, I don’t see how Shawn Watson really sticks around much after this season, since his background is the West Coast style offense. At any rate, I really don’t think we’re going to see a repeat of Nebraska’s 2009 Turtle offense.
Now if we could just rid ourselves of Ted Gilmore, I’d be all tingly with excitement.
Sailor Ripley said:
January 22nd, 2010 at 11:43 pm
seven – That’s why I put it in ‘quotes’. Stay with me.
The point referencing Nate’s point that Muschamp is a witch and Davis is Davis. He helped their defense play “lights out”.
parlin said:
January 23rd, 2010 at 10:20 am
The joke in Husker circles after the CCG is that, after watching Suh throw McCoy three yards at a time, Pelini could have won the game by having him line up in the NU backfield and do the same thing to Zac Lee.
Funny, because true.
NateHeupel said:
January 23rd, 2010 at 11:09 pm
NDS,
As to Stephen Good, I read on another blog and confirmed independently that Good lost about 20 pounds in fall camp due to illness. This is not the way to lose weight, and it usually screws you up in a serious way. Much like the rest of our OL, he battled injury all year, and I’m curious to see how he does if he gets healthy.
parlin,
That may have very well been the best offensive gameplan for Nebraska.