How I see it….the easy wins, the tough wins and the “I just don’t knows…..”

I want so badly to write this entry going through the schedule predicting with great conviction a 12-0 season, an ass whipping of Texas and a rematch with Jesus and the 21 disciples in Pasadena. These things may well all happen!!! Unless they don’t.

I hope for the best, pray for the best, think I’m going to get the best then worry like hell every fucking minute of it that something bad is going to happen. It’s not pessimism; I always focus on what CAN BE, but then worry about why it won’t. So, this piece changed since I thought about writing it. It’s not going to be written as 12 straight victories. It can’t be. There are too many variables. I’ll cover the (should be) sure W’s up front, then share my worries. Like Gresham’s injury and Murray’s balky hammy and general history of injuries and Ryan Reynolds creaky knees.

Sure Wins

Idaho St.—Duh. I’m on record as believing everyone who plays in a really good league is entitled to one cupcake (not 4 like UT). This is ours. For a reason that I really can’t explain I’ll shell out the PPV bucks for this game then watch a boring 56-7 yawner.

Tulsa—you have to admire Tulsa. It’s the smallest enrollment school in D-1 and it rolls out good team after good team. Hoops too, usually. But, they lost way too much and are physically in over their heads here. This is a rout. 52-10.

Baylor—Baylor will be much better this year and I think they’ll get to 7 wins and get to their first bowl since Grant Teaff . Good for them. Robert Griffin is a Vince Young starter kit and will do wondrous and amazing things, like winning in College Station, and putting a halftime scare into Texas. But they won’t win in Norman. This is a relatively easy win. 38-17.

K-State—Remember when we booted John Blake and there was a thread of desire to bring back a freshly departed from the Cowboys, King Switzer? I remember it. Instead we hired Bobby Stoops. How’d that work out for us? The re-tread thing just doesn’t work. I didn’t with John Robinson at USC. I don’t think it will with Bill Snyder. K-State is good when they have a cannon armed, athletic QB. May, Bishop, Beasley, etc….When they don’t, they’re not. It appears they don’t. Now, K-State has a very manageable schedule and has a good chance at bowl eligibility, but that doesn’t mean they can compete with Oklahoma in Norman. 41-10.

Nebraska—HUH? Yes. I’m just not buying the Nebraska hype. I don’t buy into teams that are breaking in first year QB’s who’ve never taken a snap in a real college game unless they’re surrounded by ELITE talent. Add that Castille was booted. I think we win this game pretty easily. 31-14.

Texas A&M—I, in these modern times, keep all the season’s games on DVR then watch them in August as my own “training camp” for viewing the season. Hopeless, I know. You have to watch something when you’re on the treadmill. So, I’ve watched 8 of the 2008 games in the past three weeks and two things JUMPED off the screen to me. The first, I lament, we SOOOO beat Florida if Murray plays. Shit luck. Injuries happen, but damnit! The second is just how bad A&M was last year. Holy cow, I’ve never seen anything even close to it from A&M. They were slow, unmotivated, quit (against us at least) and looked like they had very little talent. Honestly, I don’t know what changes this year. And it’s bad for the league. This is our biggest blowout of the season. 59-0.

Ok, so that’s 6 WINS. How can I only get to 6 easy-ish ones? Because the more you look at it this schedule is EFFING BRUTAL. Five games against Phil Steele top 22 teams and seven against Steele top 50. For the record, Texas plays 2 Steele top 10s, the same two that we do, and then not another top 50 until #41, TT. Texas has a two game schedule, folks.

What I’ll be worrying about in the Fall season……

BYU—What the hell are you talking about, NDS? We’re a three touchdown favorite??

THREE YEAR STARTER SENIOR QUARTERBACKS ARE A VERY GOOD THING TO HAVE. And BYU has one. One who might just play on Sundays. BYU won 10 games last year, have a three year starter at QB and a solid defense. We, on the other hand, are without our only proven difference maker on the other end of Sam’s passes. And we’re historically a little rusty in our openers. I see this as a very close game into the 4th quarter with our D line gradually overwhelming BYU’s young (as young as ours) O-Line. And, I think it’s lower scoring that people expect. Gimme OU 27-17.
Miami—Surely I’m fucking nuts. This was a middling seven win team last year in a middling league. Here’s why. Man, winning on the road is hard. It’s really hard against teams with elite histories, if not currently elite teams. Miami is expected to be much better than last year and will already have played three very good teams in FSU, Ga. Tech and Va Tech. They’ll be awake for this one, and priming to show the country they’re back. If Gresham’s out through this game I think there’s a real chance we lose here. W/ Gresham, win 24-21. W/O, lose 21-17.

Texas—No shit. Here’s what I like. I don’t think anyone, including Texas, is going to know how good they are coming into this game. Their September schedule is embarrassing, for them and the conference. I’ve written on Barking Carnival that programs who believe themselves to be “leaders” don’t schedule like this and that Oklahoma is the standard bearer for this conference precisely because we play all over the country. Oh yeah, and win the league 3 times in a row and six out of nine. If we’re at full strength personnel-wise, I think we beat them this year. Why? Because I think we’ll run on them. And because our front seven on defense is better than theirs. We must be at full strength, though. That means healthy Murray, healthy Gresham, healthy linebackers and, of course, healthy Sam. Healthy, we win 24-17. Not, we lose.
Kansas—I’ll save you the following reply…”Ok, you dumb ass, you pick Nebraska as a sure win and worry about Kansas. Basketball season starts November, dipshit!” DID I MENTION HOW I FEEL ABOUT THREE YEAR RETURNING STARTERS AT QUARTERBACK? I love Todd Reesing. If Todd Reesing were at Texas he’d be Colt McCoy. The guy simply makes play after play after play. Dezmon Briscoe is a bona fide stud and Meier gives them a Todd Blythe dimension down the field. Mangino has done a ridiculous job there. The only thing he doesn’t have on his resume is a program defining upset win. He got close against UT in ’04 but you know what happened there. Even the OB win over Va Tech doesn’t qualify. A win over Oklahoma in what could be a national night game in Lawrence (remember UT-K-State a couple years ago) would be exactly that kind of win. Reesing to Briscoe lit us up in Norman last year. I’m not even going to give a prediction. This game just scares the piss out of me.

Tech—We should beat Tech. We probably will beat Tech. But crazy shit happens to us there. That’s why the worry. If there’s no end times rapture or kickoff that costs us two starters or shit like happened in ’05 at the end, we’ll win. But all conference road games are tough games and this is a potential trap. I’ll keep the faith for now, 38-24.
Okie State—Believe it or not, of all the games in this worry column, this one is the least of my worries. Zac Robinson is a fine athlete; I just don’t think he’s that good a quarterback. He thrives because he has a stud RB behind him and a stud to throw to. He doesn’t have an NFL arm and wouldn’t start at Oklahoma or Texas, or maybe even Kansas. When we’re good, like not the ‘90s, Okie State wins in Norman only when we look past them. Did in ’76, did in ’01. We don’t look past them here. And crush them. 34-17.

Here’s the bottom line. We’re talented and good enough to go 12-0, then 13-0, then 14-0. I just don’t think the schedule sets up for it. We have two losable non-con games and play all 4 of the other 5 best teams in the conference, only one at home. Can we really win ‘em all when we play 5 top 21 (Steele) teams and four of them are away from home? I want to believe, I really do, but I’m just not sure we can win them all. Unless we do!

Off to Arlington………..